
Disclaimer: This is a scenario modelling and information tool only. All figures shown are modelled estimates based on publicly available data and may differ from official government figures from time to time.
In-country supply at current consumption — approaching warning level
Est. depletion without resupply: 12 May 2026
Calculated 20 Apr, 01:00 pm
Verified AU-bound tankers — not yet available for distribution
MSO adjusted: The government released up to 20% of the baseline MSO for petrol and diesel on 13 March 2026, reducing the minimum obligation to 855 ML (petrol) and 2,197 ML (diesel). Kerosene remains at 663 ML. The MSO delta shown above reflects these reduced thresholds.
Adjust inputs to model hypothetical supply disruptions and see how they affect days of cover.
Unlocks 164 ML/yr surplus domestic ethanol. Adds ~3.8 days to petrol only.
Please note: Figures are modelled estimates only, and may differ from official government reported figures from time to time.
Our approach is to model real-time stock estimates based on several known factors, including depletion since the last known MSO observation and shipment data.
Our model is periodically updated with official data. Regulated entities report weekly stocks held as of Tuesday to DCCEEW by Friday. Aggregate statistics are published each Saturday. We convert reported days of cover into megalitres: stockML = msoDays × dailyConsumption
For each day since the observation, we model:
Panic buying is shown to be associated with major supply disruption. As imports drop and the number of vendors reported as out of stock increases, panic buying rates can increase. The reinforcement loop has been observed in multiple fuel crises (UK 2021, Australia 2026; see also Liquid Fuel Security Review Final Report, 2020, Appendix A).
Panic buying estimates (guide):
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, daily.
Australia imports ~80% of its refined fuel. However, given the length of the supply chain, there is a significant lag to the disruption. These lag effects add uncertainty to fuel shipments landing at an Australian port, with greater opportunity for turnarounds.
Not all reported stock that lands is available for distribution. Tank bottoms, pipeline fill, minimum operating levels, and regional storage constraints mean approximately 10% of reported stock is lost, or operationally inaccessible. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic confirms that: “stock levels are not representative of fuel available for immediate distribution.”
Fuel on confirmed AU-bound tankers (via live AIS tracking) is shown separately as “in transit” — it is not added to the headline number because it has not arrived and is not available for distribution.
MSO reduction: On 13 March 2026, the government released up to 20% of the baseline MSO for petrol and diesel to address localised supply disruption. Our model uses the reduced MSO floor (855 ML petrol, 2,197 ML diesel; kerosene unchanged at 663 ML). Source: Minister Bowen — More fuel for regional Australians.
Geelong refinery adjustment: Following the fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery on 15 April 2026, domestic refining estimates have been adjusted to reflect reduced output: petrol at 60%, diesel and aviation fuel at 80% of normal capacity. Source: Prime Minister’s press conference, Viva Refinery Geelong.
Sources: MSO from DCCEEW Power BI (weekly Saturdays). Consumption from Australian Petroleum Statistics (monthly). Domestic refining: Ampol Lytton + Viva Geelong output data. Vessel tracking: AISStream live AIS feed.
Vessels are tracked from multiple sources: AIS (Automatic Identification System), which provides real-time position, speed, heading, and destination data broadcast by vessels themselves;port authority schedules from NSW Ports, Ports Victoria, QShips QLD, Fremantle, Flinders (SA), Darwin, and TasPorts; and vessel tracking databases for position enrichment and classification.
Only tanker-class vessels are tracked. We filter for AIS ship type codes 80–89 (tankers) and exclude gas carriers (LNG, LPG, GASCHEM) via name pattern matching and ship type codes 70–79. Each vessel is identified by its unique MMSI (Maritime Mobile Service Identity). Where available, IMO numbers are cross-referenced for enrichment.
Fuel type is determined through a classification cascade, in order of confidence:
Generic tankers (AIS type 80) and product tankers (type 85–89) carry mixed refined fuel. Without cargo manifest data (which is not publicly available), their cargo is split proportionally based on Australian Petroleum Statistics import mix: 57% diesel, 25% petrol, 13% jet fuel, 5% other. This is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads.
Cargo volume is estimated from AIS-reported vessel dimensions (length × beam) using a cubic number approximation for laden tankers. Where available, known DWT (deadweight tonnage) from vessel databases is used instead for higher accuracy. Port scraper data does not include cargo volumes. Cargo manifests are not publicly accessible in Australia.
A vessel is flagged as a potential diversion only when there is positive evidence: its AIS destination changes from an Australian port to a non-Australian port while the vessel is more than 200km from the Australian port. Vessels that arrive at an Australian port and then depart for their next destination are not counted as diversions. Vessels that go quiet on AIS (transponder off, coverage gap, or arrived at port) are not assumed to be diverted. Potential diversions may reflect commercial rerouting, schedule changes, or data corrections — not necessarily supply disruptions. Arrivals are verified via Data Docked port call history where available.
Distance to port is calculated using the haversine (great circle) formula with route correction factors applied per transit zone. Vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore Strait, or Indonesian passages have correction factors of 1.15–1.25× applied to account for actual maritime routing vs straight-line distance. Routes displayed on the map are interpolated great circle arcs routed through key maritime waypoints (Lombok Strait, Bass Strait, Cape Leeuwin) to approximate realistic shipping lanes.
Cargo type and volume are estimated, not confirmed — cargo manifests are not publicly available in Australia. AIS data can be delayed, incomplete, or in rare cases spoofed. Port schedules may change without notice. Vessel dimensions in AIS can be inaccurate or missing. The product tanker cargo split is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads. Vessels not broadcasting AIS (transponder off, out of range) will not appear. Scheduled vessels from port authorities may not materialise if bookings are cancelled.