
Disclaimer: This is a scenario modelling and information tool only. All figures shown are modelled estimates based on publicly available data and may differ from official government figures from time to time.
In-country supply at current consumption — below critical threshold
Est. depletion without resupply: 24 Apr 2026
Calculated 5 Apr, 07:00 pm
Verified AU-bound tankers — not yet available for distribution
1 vessel diverted from Australian ports
Adjust inputs to model hypothetical supply disruptions and see how they affect days of cover.
Unlocks 164 ML/yr surplus domestic ethanol capacity. Petrol only — no effect on diesel or jet.
Source: Australian Government fuel excise temporary reduction, effective 1 Apr 2026 for 3 months. Normal rate: 52.6c/L.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) — Europe Brent Spot Price FOB, daily.
Please note: Figures are modelled estimates only, and may differ from official government reported figures from time to time.
Our approach is to model real-time stock estimates based on several known factors, including depletion since the last known MSO observation and shipment data.
Our model is periodically updated with official data. Regulated entities report weekly stocks held as of Tuesday to DCCEEW by Friday. Aggregate statistics are published each Saturday. We convert reported days of cover into megalitres: stockML = msoDays × dailyConsumption
For each day since the observation, we model:
Panic buying is shown to be associated with major supply disruption. As imports drop, and the number of vendors reported as out of stock increases, panic buying rates can increase. The reinforcement loop is observed in multiple fuel crises (UK 2021, Australia COVID 2020; see also Liquid Fuel Security Review, 2019).
Typical panic buying estimates (guide):
Panic factor capped at 35%. These factors are based on official government modelling and panic buying trends during previous global events (LFSR 2019: 10–20%, IEA: 20–30% effective shortfall, COVID AU: 20–25% measured).
Australia imports ~80% of its refined fuel. However, given the length of the supply chain, there is a significant lag to the disruption. These lag effects add uncertainty to fuel shipments landing at an Australian port, with greater opportunity for turnarounds.
Not all reported stock that lands is available for distribution. Tank bottoms, pipeline fill, minimum operating levels, and regional storage constraints mean approximately 15% of reported stock is lost, or operationally inaccessible. Energy analyst Saul Kavonic confirms that: “stock levels are not representative of fuel available for immediate distribution.”
Fuel on confirmed AU-bound tankers (via live AIS tracking) is shown separately as “in transit” — it is not added to the headline number because it has not arrived and is not available for distribution.
Sources: MSO from DCCEEW Power BI (weekly Saturdays). Consumption from Australian Petroleum Statistics (monthly). Domestic refining: Ampol Lytton + Viva Geelong output data. Vessel tracking: AISStream live AIS feed.
Vessels are tracked from two primary sources: AIS (Automatic Identification System) via AISStream, which provides real-time position, speed, heading, and destination data broadcast by vessels themselves; and port authority schedules from NSW Ports, Ports Victoria, QShips QLD, Fremantle, Flinders (SA), Darwin, and TasPorts, which provide forward-looking arrival schedules. AIS data is polled every 10 minutes from a 2-minute WebSocket window covering the Australian bounding box. Port schedules are scraped every 6 hours.
Only tanker-class vessels are tracked. We filter for AIS ship type codes 80–89 (tankers) and exclude gas carriers (LNG, LPG, GASCHEM) via name pattern matching and ship type codes 70–79. Each vessel is identified by its unique MMSI (Maritime Mobile Service Identity). Where available, IMO numbers are cross-referenced for enrichment.
Fuel type is determined through a classification cascade, in order of confidence:
Generic tankers (AIS type 80) and product tankers (type 85–89) carry mixed refined fuel. Without cargo manifest data (which is not publicly available), their cargo is split proportionally based on Australian Petroleum Statistics import mix: 57% diesel, 25% petrol, 13% jet fuel, 5% other. This is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads.
Cargo volume is estimated from AIS-reported vessel dimensions (length × beam) using a cubic number approximation for laden tankers. Where available, known DWT (deadweight tonnage) from vessel databases is used instead for higher accuracy. Port scraper data does not include cargo volumes. Cargo manifests are not publicly accessible in Australia.
A vessel is flagged as a potential diversion only when there is positive evidence: its AIS destination changes from an Australian port to a non-Australian port while the vessel is more than 200km from the Australian port. Vessels that arrive at an Australian port and then depart for their next destination are not counted as diversions. Vessels that go quiet on AIS (transponder off, coverage gap, or arrived at port) are not assumed to be diverted. Potential diversions may reflect commercial rerouting, schedule changes, or data corrections — not necessarily supply disruptions. Arrivals are verified via Data Docked port call history where available.
Distance to port is calculated using the haversine (great circle) formula with route correction factors applied per transit zone. Vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Singapore Strait, or Indonesian passages have correction factors of 1.15–1.25× applied to account for actual maritime routing vs straight-line distance. Routes displayed on the map are interpolated great circle arcs routed through key maritime waypoints (Lombok Strait, Bass Strait, Cape Leeuwin) to approximate realistic shipping lanes.
Cargo type and volume are estimated, not confirmed — cargo manifests are not publicly available in Australia. AIS data can be delayed, incomplete, or in rare cases spoofed. Port schedules may change without notice. Vessel dimensions in AIS can be inaccurate or missing. The product tanker cargo split is a national average and may not reflect individual vessel loads. Vessels not broadcasting AIS (transponder off, out of range) will not appear. Scheduled vessels from port authorities may not materialise if bookings are cancelled.